What to know about avocados and tariffs

Avocados grow on trees in an orchard in the municipality of Ario de Rosales, Michoacan state, Mexico, on Sept. 21, 2023. Tariffs on Mexican imports would have a big effect on avocados in the U.S. Alfredo Estrella/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Of all the products that would be affected by President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on Mexico, avocados stand out:90% of avocados consumed in the U.S. are imported. And almost all of those imports come from Mexico.

Trump has said he plans to impose a blanket tariff of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% tax on goods from China.

It's unclear whether the tariffs will be implemented or if they will serve merely as a negotiating tactic.

If enacted, they could have multiple effects on the avocado industry.

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"Broad tariffs, like what's being proposed, is not something that we've seen" before, says David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University. "We had the trade war with China back in 2018 that affected steel and aluminum, but when it comes to food, these types of policy proposals are not something that are very common or that we've seen recently."

With one of the biggest guacamole-eating events of the year — the Super Bowl — approaching in February, here's what to know about avocados, tariffs, and why so many avocados are grown in Mexico.

Avocados are displayed in a grocery store in Washington, D.C., on June 14, 2022. Experts predict avocado prices will rise in the event of tariffs on Mexican imports. Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

First, a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico would lead to higher avocado prices at the grocery store.

But estimating just how much higher is hard to say. It's possible that producers and importers will absorb some of the costs to keep prices down and stay more competitive.

Ortega says there could be "pretty significant increases in the price of avocados. Maybe not the full 25%, but pretty close, given that there's very little substitute ability with regards to where we would source avocados."