China’s foreign trade up 1.3 pct in Q1, sustaining stable growth despite disruptions caused by US tariffs

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By Chu Daye (Global Times) 10:19, April 15, 2025

China's foreign trade in goods in the first quarter of 2025 grew by 1.3 percent year-on-year, reaching 10.3 trillion yuan ($1.41 trillion), surpassing 10 trillion yuan for eight consecutive quarters and marking a stable start to the year, as various support policies continue to take effect, official data showed on Monday.

Between January and March, the country's exports grew by 6.9 percent year-on-year, totaling 6.13 trillion yuan while imports decreased by 6 percent year-on-year to 4.17 trillion yuan, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs (GAC).

Chinese analysts said the stable foreign trade growth could provide strong support for economic growth in the first quarter, while noting that the Chinese exports sector has enough confidence to brace for the chaos and disruptions of the US tariff policies by the US through efforts focused on expanding new markets and enhancing cooperation with partners to safeguard the multilateral trading system.

Progress under pressure

Despite increasing external challenges, localities, government agencies and export-oriented enterprises have responded actively, ensuring a stable start to China's foreign trade in the first quarter, GAC deputy head Wang Lingjun said at a press conference on Monday.

In the quarter, China's import and export volume reached a new record high compared to the same period in previous years.

Over the period, trade with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partner countries grew 2.2 percent, faster than overall foreign trade and accounting for 51.1 percent of China's total foreign trade, official data showed.

Trade with ASEAN reached 1.71 trillion yuan, up by 7.1 percent year-on-year, GAC data showed.

In dollar-denominated terms, exports in March rose 12.4 percent year-on-year, a five-month high, official data showed. It handily beat the 4.4-percent growth expected in a poll of economists, according to Reuters.

Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the academic committee at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times on Monday that growth and stability are the key words to describe first quarter foreign trade, as China's foreign trade sector responded with its scale and competitiveness to bring a steady rebound in the global markets amid improved expectations during the quarter.

Featuring steady export growth and coupled with a drop in import value, the first quarter foreign trade is expected to have a notably positive impact on the first quarter GDP growth, Zhang said.

Chen Fengying, a research fellow at the Beijing-based China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times on Monday that exporters rushed out shipments in March in anticipation of a deteriorating global trade landscape following the US imposition of tariffs, which has in part underpinned foreign trade growth in the quarter.

Highlights in the quarter include imports and exports of electro-mechanical products, exports of household appliances, laptops, and electronic components, as well as products from homegrown brands that have higher profit margins, according to GAC.

Multiple factors have resulted in the decline in imports value during the quarter, which decreased by 6 percent year-on-year to 4.17 trillion yuan.

International bulk commodity prices fell in the period, with average import prices of iron ore and coal falling by more than 20 percent, and those of crude oil and soybeans falling by 5.7 percent and 16.6 percent. These price factors affected the overall import growth rates by 2.6 percentage points, according to GAC spokesperson Lyu Daliang.

'The sky won't fall'

The frontloading of exported goods took place amid the US' ratcheting up of tariffs, which shot up to 145 percent in April from 20 percent in the first quarter. China responded by placing a 125-percent tariff on US goods.

This has dampened the global trade growth outlook, with the WTO warning that the trade row could cut the shipment of goods between the world's two largest economies by as much as 80 percent.

Despite a complex and challenging external environment, GAC's Lyu said on Monday that "the sky won't fall" for China's exports, underlining the confidence of Chinese foreign trade.

China in recent years has made steady progress in diversifying its foreign trade markets and deepening industrial and supply chain cooperation with partners around the world, according to Lyu, adding that these efforts "have not only supported our partners' development but also enhanced our own resilience."

Zhang said China could cope with the chaos in global trade in the coming months with its strong manufacturing capacity, efficient coordination on global supply chains, complementary upstream and downstream capabilities, and ever-increasing global competitiveness.