China reaffirms confidence in hitting growth target; OECD upgrades China's projection

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By Ma Jingjing, Chi Jingyi (Global Times) 08:19, March 19, 2025

Mao's remarks came after being asked to comment on China's 2025 growth target as some believe this target is ambitious, showing China's clear resolve to maintain growth, while some believe it will be difficult to hit the target.

"Despite mounting tariff barriers, a complex external environment, and other challenges, we are fully confident in achieving the growth target," Mao said.

On demand, China has an enormous market and great potential for domestic demand. On supply, China has the most complete industrial system and considerable capacity for production. On institutional strengths, China has effective governance mechanisms featuring long-term plans, sound regulation, and coordination between central and local governments, Mao noted.

On policy tools, China will adopt a more proactive fiscal policy and an appropriately accommodative monetary policy to fully buttress high-quality growth. A new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other is being fostered at a faster pace. Our diverse trading partners cover more than 230 countries and regions in the world. China is capable of guarding against the uncertainty brought by external shocks, she added.

On Monday, China became one of the few major economies that the OECD upgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025, as the organization said in its latest Economic Outlook that global GDP growth is projected to moderate from 3.2 percent in 2024 to 3.1 percent in 2025 and 3.0 percent in 2026.

According to the OECD, the downward adjustment for global GDP growth from its previous forecast is due to "higher trade barriers in several G20 economies and increased geopolitical and policy uncertainty weighing on investment and household spending."

"The OECD's upgrade of China's GDP forecast reflects their recognition of China's efforts to drive stable economic growth while expressing confidence in China's huge economic potential, resilience and development prospects," Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

The Chinese economy has maintained a good growth momentum, with retail sales of consumer goods, a major indicator of a country's consumption strength, climbing 4 percent year-on-year in the first two months of 2025 to over 8.37 trillion yuan ($1.16 trillion), according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.

More international institutions are very likely to raise their GDP forecasts for China this year along with the implementation of a series of pro-growth policies, Cao said, noting that China's stable economic growth is conducive to regional cooperation and development, as well as global economic recovery.

Morgan Stanley Chief China Economist Robin Xing wrote in a note sent to the Global Times that he estimates China's real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2025 will likely be 5.4 percent year-on-year, adding that in March, potential payback from front-loading in January-February would be met with a lower comparison base.

After the two sessions charted China's development roadmap for 2025, various government departments and local governments took swift and solid actions to bolster steady economic growth.

On Sunday, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued a plan to vigorously boost consumption, stimulate domestic demand across the board and increase spending power by increasing earnings and reducing financial burdens.

Peng Yanyan, head of China consumer products research at UBS Investment Bank, noted, "We remain positive on consumption picking up in 2025, which depends on promising household income prospects and a stable property market. In light of the trade-in programs, we expect major appliance retail sales to sequentially recover as we enter the peak season, with air conditioners being an outperformer."

Upbeat outlook