China reinforces bilateral ‘guardrail’ to US; Partisan struggle may ‘bring crisis to Taiwan Straits’

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By Yang Sheng, Liu Xuanzun (Global Times) 08:30, July 28, 2022

Two Su-35 fighter jets and a H-6K bomber fly in formation on May 11, 2018. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) air force conducted patrol training over China's island of Taiwan on Friday. (Photo: Xinhua)

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's unconfirmed plan of a trip to the island of Taiwan keeps troubling the US as Pelosi, US President Joe Biden and Democrats are now facing pressure instead of "encouragements" from the Republicans on the matter, with Chinese experts warning that if the US eventually let the partisan struggle and internal politics hijack its strategic decision-making, it would definitely bring a new crisis in the Taiwan Straits.

Republicans knew that Democrats, especially Pelosi and Biden, are now facing a dilemma - visiting the island may prompt China's military reaction and a serious geopolitical crisis will emerge and Pelosi will be in danger as well. According to analysts, canceling the trip will benefit Republicans, as they can say that Democrats are being too weak and dare not to challenge China. The Biden administration and Pelosi still have a chance to keep the mistake from becoming a much bigger one, and if they - both Democrats and Republicans - underestimate China's warning, it would be extremely dangerous.

China has issued six warnings in the past few days and has stressed the danger of the US provocations, including those coming from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of National Defenseand the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council.

On Tuesday, China's top political advisor Wang Yang stressed the importance of upholding the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus, and called for jointly striving to achieve the reunification of the motherland, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

Wang, at a meeting in Beijing marking the 30th anniversary of the 1992 Consensus, said the Taiwan authorities' denial of the 1992 Consensus, along with certain countries' connivance and instigation of the secessionists' provocation, will only plunge Taiwan into catastrophe, and cause misery for Taiwan people.

He warned that no individual and no force should underestimate the resolve, the will, and the ability of the Chinese people to defend their national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Analysts said the high-profile commemoration for the 1992 Consensus has once again highlighted the bottom line of China on the Taiwan question. Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had already told US State Secretary Antony Blinken at a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Indonesia that "the three China-US joint communiqués are the most reliable guardrails for the two countries."

China is telling the US loud and clear where the bilateral "guardrails" are, and the US should keep its promise of not supporting Taiwan secessionism. If Washington doesn't keep the bilateral ties away from the edge but instead, insists on crashing against the "guardrails," the consequence will definitely be a deadly disaster, experts warn.

Sick partisan politics

Pelosi's reported plan has "upended Washington's political divide," with prominent Republicans offering encouragement to a political opponent they normally scorn, AP reported on Tuesday.

Pelosi's supporters include a conservative Republican senator, at least two former Trump administration officials, including former secretary of state Mike Pompeo who is sanctioned by China, and Newt Gingrich, the speaker of a Republican-controlled House under Democratic president Bill Clinton, who made a trip to the island in 1997. They are urging Biden to back the trip even as China threatens a forceful response if she goes.

Some Democrats' Congress members also joined the choir of encouraging voices, according to NBC News on Wednesday. This dangerous trend reflects that the US partisan struggle has made politicians in Washington blind to actual risks that could cause geopolitical disaster, while they keep only the midterm elections in sight.

"Republicans' encouragements to Pelosi are more like setting a trap than real approval. If Pelosi eventually goes to the island and causes a military crisis that the US can't handle, Republicans can still criticize the Biden administration for the failure to handle a crisis," said a Beijing-based senior expert on international relations who asked for anonymity.

A Chinese proverb goes that "When the weasel pays respects to the hen, his intentions are certainly not good," which perfectly describes the Republicans' push for Pelosi's possible visit, he noted.